Three days have gone by since I last wrote down my thoughts, so I thought I’d update them here.
A lot has happened in the past three or four days.
- Sunday night:
- Fed announces 0% interest rates
- Dow down 12.9%, S&P down 12%
- Fed injects trillions into the market
- Dow up 5.2%, S&P up 5.9%
- Treasury announces $1,000 for every American
- Dow down 6.30%, S&P down 5.18%
According to the Johns Hopkins website, there are 7,769 cases in US, 2,495 of which are in in New York
This is between my two estimates in the last post, so let’s stay in that range for now.
People who went out this weekend are starting to start showing symptoms tomorrow too, so I expect that numbe to increase.
My thoughts on Coronavirus
I think Trump’s administration has been incrimentally increasing measures so not to shock the American people.
The two big items I see left on the table in containing the virus are: - Domestic air travel ban - Shelter in place - (worst case scenario)
From what I have gathered, we still do not have much testing going on. So I don’t see us having a full handle on the situation until at least Monday of next week.
By this weekend I would expect 12,000 - 20,000 cases based on math in previous post.
In the mean time, we are going to see restauraunts close down or go delivary only, and I’m curious if that will be enough to keep them afloat (I doubt it).
- The airline industry is going to need a bailout. - The cruise line industry is going to need a bailout or go bankrupt (and probably perminently lose a block of people). - There are talks that the casino industry is going to get rekt. - The live entertainment industry is going to be non-existent (music, sports, theater, etc). - Boeing is going to need a bailout or will go bankrupt.
More and more money is going to be injected into repo markets.
Helicopter money details will be finalized but probably not implemented soon enough or be enough to cover.
People who are out of work are going to not get a paycheck starting in two weeks.
That is when things are really going to start hurting I believe.
And while all of this is going on, there are still going to be liquidity shortages. Peeople are going to need cash to get through this.
I expect things to continue dropping as the week goes on. Maybe hold steady one of the days and then we take another step down next week.